Okay, so I’ve been trying to get better at predicting NBA games, and tonight’s Nuggets-Kings matchup seemed like a good one to test out my evolving strategy. Here’s how I went about it, step-by-step.
Looked at Recent Performance
First thing I did was check how both teams have been playing lately. I didn’t want to go too far back, just the last 5-10 games to get a sense of their current form. I quickly jotted down their win-loss records and, more importantly, how they looked in those games. Were they winning big or just scraping by? Were they losing to good teams or bad teams?
Checked the Injury Reports
This is HUGE. A star player out can totally change the dynamics of a game. I made sure to find the latest injury reports for both the Nuggets and the Kings. I focused on key players, the guys who really make a difference on the court.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Next, I looked at how these two teams have fared against each other this season. Sometimes, certain teams just have another team’s number, regardless of their overall record.I was trying to dig out how many games they’d played, who won, and what the scores were.
Considered Home vs. Away
Home-court advantage is a real thing in the NBA. Teams tend to play better at home. I checked to see which team was playing at home for this game, and factored that into my thinking. I noted it on my paper.
Simulated my Prediction Process
- I imagined the two teams on court, and what players of the two teams were outstanding, and the key player of them.
- I thought which team have a bigger probability to win based on my stats collection above.
- I made a final decision of the team to win the game.
Made My Prediction(Didn’t bet!)
Based on all this, I finally made my prediction. It was just for fun and practice, and I jotted it down. I decided the game was too close to call with any confidence, so I decided to abstain.
This whole process is still a work in progress, and there will be mistakes, but I feel like I’m getting a little better at understanding the factors that go into predicting these games. And there will be more!
