Alright, let me tell you about this little project I started a while back, trying my hand at figuring out Botafogo’s match outcomes. It wasn’t anything super scientific, more like a personal challenge I set for myself because I follow the team and football predictions always seemed intriguing.
So, where did I start? Honestly, I just began by looking at the most obvious stuff. I pulled up their recent match results. Just simple win, lose, draw, and the scores. I figured, you know, current form must count for something. I scribbled these down in a notebook I keep lying around. Just basic stuff, dates, opponents, scores.
Gathering the Bits and Pieces
Then I realized just looking at the last few games wasn’t enough. Sometimes a team wins three easy ones and then gets hammered by a stronger opponent. So, I decided I needed a bit more context. I started looking for things like:
- Home vs Away: Big difference sometimes, right? Some teams are lions at home and lambs away. I started noting where the games were played.
- Goals Scored/Conceded: Are they scoring freely? Are they leaking goals like a sieve? Seemed important.
- Key Players: I tried to keep an eye on news about major injuries or suspensions. If their main striker was out, that felt like it should matter.
Finding this info consistently wasn’t always easy. Different websites sometimes had slightly different details, especially about injuries. I mostly stuck to looking at basic match reports and league tables I could find easily online. I didn’t use any fancy tools, just my browser and that same old notebook.
Trying to Make Sense of It
Okay, so I had this collection of notes. Now what? My first ‘method’ was really basic. I’d look at the upcoming fixture: Is it home or away? How did they do in the last 3-4 games? Is the opponent tough (based on the league table)? Are any star players missing? Based on these points, I’d just make a gut call. Like, “Okay, home game, decent form, key players fit… maybe a win.”
I kept track of my ‘predictions’ against the actual results. Let’s just say I wasn’t about to get rich! It was hit and miss. Sometimes I’d feel clever because I called an upset, other times they’d lose a game I was sure they’d win. Football is unpredictable, that’s the main thing I learned quickly.
Tweaking the Approach
After a few weeks of getting it wrong as often as right, I thought maybe I should look at head-to-head records. You know, how has Botafogo typically done against this specific opponent in the past? Sometimes teams just have a ‘bogey team’ they struggle against, regardless of form. So I started adding that to my little checklist before making a guess.
I also tried to give different factors ‘weights’ in my head. Like, a home game against a bottom-table team might outweigh a recent loss. But an injury to the main goalkeeper? That felt like a big negative, maybe overriding good form. It was all very subjective, just me trying to balance these things in my mind.
The Actual ‘Prediction’
So, my final process before a game looked something like this: check home/away, check recent form (last 4-5 games), check opponent’s position in the league, check major injuries/suspensions, check past results against this opponent. Then, I’d just sort of… decide. Win, lose, or draw. I didn’t usually try to predict the exact score, that seemed way too hard.
My Results? Well…
It remained a fun exercise, but ‘reliable’ isn’t a word I’d use. There were just too many variables. A red card early in the game, a lucky goal, a sudden drop in team morale – stuff my simple checklist couldn’t possibly account for. It definitely made watching the games more interesting, seeing if my logic played out or got totally thrown out the window.
Looking back, it was an interesting experiment. It showed me how complex predicting football is. Even with stats and info, there’s so much randomness. I don’t really do it so systematically anymore, but it was a good way to engage more deeply with the team’s season for a while. Just a personal project, nothing more, nothing less.
