Alright, let’s talk about this thing I started doing a while back – trying my hand at predicting Benfica matches. It wasn’t for anything serious, you know, just a bit of fun, maybe impress some mates down at the pub. I follow Benfica, always have, so I thought, how hard can it be?
Well, let me tell you, it started off as a total mess. Initially, I was just going with my gut feeling. You know, “Ah, they played well last week,” or “This striker is on fire.” Sometimes it worked, mostly it didn’t. I’d get cocky after one right guess and then completely bomb the next three predictions. It was pretty random, honestly.
Getting Serious… Sort Of
So, I figured maybe I should try and be a bit more, let’s say, organized about it. I wasn’t going full statistician mode, mind you. No fancy software or algorithms. That’s not really my style. I just started keeping a little notebook.
What did I track? Simple stuff, really:
- Recent form – wins, losses, draws in the last 5 games or so.
- Injuries and suspensions – who’s out? Big deal sometimes.
- Head-to-head record against the opponent. Sometimes teams just have a bogey team, you know?
- Where the game was played – home or away. That usually makes a difference for Benfica.
I’d spend maybe half an hour before a game just jotting things down, looking up the basic news on the teams. Used a couple of standard sports websites, nothing special. Sometimes just checked the league table. It was pretty basic stuff, pen and paper mostly, maybe a simple spreadsheet on my old computer if I felt ambitious.
The Ups and Downs
Did it make me a prediction genius? Absolutely not. It was still hit and miss. I remember one time, I had all the data pointing towards a comfortable Benfica win against a supposedly weaker team. Everything looked perfect on paper. I told my friends, “This one’s a cert!” What happened? Benfica drew 0-0. Had chances, hit the post, but just couldn’t score. Made me look like a right idiot.
But then there were times when looking at the details helped. Maybe noticing the opponent’s key defender was injured, or that Benfica had a great record away against that specific team. Sometimes those little details I noted down actually seemed to point towards the right outcome, and getting one right after paying a bit more attention felt good, I won’t lie.
What I Reckon Now
Doing this whole prediction tracking thing taught me a couple of things. Firstly, football is damn unpredictable. You can have all the stats in the world, but a lucky bounce, a red card, a single moment of brilliance or madness can change everything. All my notes couldn’t predict that stuff.
Secondly, it did make watching the games more interesting, in a way. I was paying more attention to specific players, team setups, things I maybe overlooked before. It wasn’t about being right all the time, more about the process of looking into it.
I still jot down a few notes now and then before a big game, more out of habit than anything. It’s just a bit of fun, trying to figure things out. But do I rely on it? Nah. Mostly, I just hope Benfica win, same as always. Trying to predict it is just a little side game I play myself.
