So, I was messing around with some sports betting stuff the other day, specifically trying to figure out who’s gonna win in tennis matches. I decided to focus on this dude, Reilly Opelka, ’cause I’ve seen him play a few times and he’s got a killer serve.
First thing I did was just look up some recent matches. I found out that there’s this upcoming match in July, the 27th I think, between Reilly Opelka and James Duckworth. I figured that would be a good one to start with, since there was some buzz about it online. It seemed like a normal prediction.
I also saw that Opelka’s got a match against Aleksandar Kovacevic on July 24th. Apparently, Opelka is the favorite in that one, with odds of -165. I’m not a big gambler, but I know that means people think he’s more likely to win. In other words, I thought it had some potential to study.
Then there’s this other match, way later in August, where Opelka’s supposed to play Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open. That one’s gonna be interesting, ’cause Musetti’s pretty good too, but it’s a bit too far off to really predict anything now.
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July 24th:
Reilly Opelka vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic
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July 27th:
Reilly Opelka vs. James Duckworth
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August 24th:
Reilly Opelka vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Anyways, I started digging into some stats, trying to see if I could find any patterns. I looked at their head-to-head records, recent wins and losses, you know, the usual stuff. I spent like, a whole afternoon just scrolling through tables and charts.
After all that, I still don’t have any solid predictions. It’s tough, man! There are so many things that can affect a tennis match. But I did learn a bit about how these odds are set, and I got a better feel for Opelka’s playing style.
I think I’ll keep messing around with this stuff. It’s kinda fun, even if I don’t really know what I’m doing. Maybe one day I’ll actually get good at predicting these matches, but for now, I’m just a guy playing around with numbers and hoping to learn something.
